Group K - Collaborative Climate Adaption Project - Revision history

Emilta: /* Your scenario */

2013-02-05T14:08:40Z

Your scenario

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	=== Your scenario ===		=== Your scenario ===
	For most coastal regions the rising sea level due to climate change is a great challenge. The city of Alexandria is no exception. According to the ~~IPPC~~ third assessment report (IPCC, 2001), the sea level rise is projected to be between 15-95 cm by the year 2100 for African coastal areas.		For most coastal regions the rising sea level due to climate change is a great challenge. The city of Alexandria is no exception. According to the IPCC third assessment report (IPCC, 2001), the sea level rise is projected to be between 15-95 cm by the year 2100 for African coastal areas.
	Frihy (2003) points out that climate change is not the sole reason for sea level rise, it is also caused by local tectonic activities (subsidence/emergence) and seasonal oceanographic and meteorological processes. The combined sea level rise for Alexandria is expected to be around 7.5mm (1-5 mm due to subsidence and 1.60 mm due to sea level rise) per year.		Frihy (2003) points out that climate change is not the sole reason for sea level rise, it is also caused by local tectonic activities (subsidence/emergence) and seasonal oceanographic and meteorological processes. The combined sea level rise for Alexandria is expected to be around 7.5mm (1-5 mm due to subsidence and 1.60 mm due to sea level rise) per year.
	If no counter measure is taken, a scenario involving a sea level rise between 0.5 m and 1.0 m over		If no counter measure is taken, a scenario involving a sea level rise between 0.5 m and 1.0 m over

Martina Sekutor: /* Presentation Slides */

2013-01-14T21:34:04Z

Presentation Slides

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	Image:1. Case study area - Vulnerability.JPG\|Slide One		Image:1. Case study area - Vulnerability.JPG\|Slide One
	Image:2._Adaption_-_Mitigation.JPG\|Slide Two		Image:2._Adaption_-_Mitigation.JPG\|Slide Two
	Image:3.~~_Scenario~~.JPG\|Slide Three		Image:3._Scenarios.JPG\|Slide Three
	</gallery>		</gallery>

Ilze Draudina: /* Rationale: Why have you selected this case study area? */

2013-01-14T21:28:16Z

Rationale: Why have you selected this case study area?

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	Climate changes are already having an enormous effect on ecosystems, agriculture, forests, hydrological cycle, air quality etc. The Mediterranean region is one of the most threatened on the Earth. Mediterranean climates are found in only five places on the Earth: California and northern Baja California, the basin of the Mediterranean Sea, southwestern Australia, the western cape of South Africa and the central coast of Chile [http://www.medclimatechangeinitiative.org/ (Mediterranean climate change…)]. These regions cover only a small part of the Earth's land surface (about 2,2 percent), but also incorporate about 20 percent of all known plant species. Only the tropical rainforests of the western hemisphere and Southeast Asia have a bigger density of plant species (Shaw, 2010). By 2100, the Mediterranean biome is presumed to loose proportionally the largest biodiversity of all terrestrial biomes because of it's sensitivity to multiple biodiversity threats(Klausmeyer and Shaw, 2009).		Climate changes are already having an enormous effect on ecosystems, agriculture, forests, hydrological cycle, air quality etc. The Mediterranean region is one of the most threatened on the Earth. Mediterranean climates are found in only five places on the Earth: California and northern Baja California, the basin of the Mediterranean Sea, southwestern Australia, the western cape of South Africa and the central coast of Chile [http://www.medclimatechangeinitiative.org/ (Mediterranean climate change…)]. These regions cover only a small part of the Earth's land surface (about 2,2 percent), but also incorporate about 20 percent of all known plant species. Only the tropical rainforests of the western hemisphere and Southeast Asia have a bigger density of plant species (Shaw, 2010). By 2100, the Mediterranean biome is presumed to loose proportionally the largest biodiversity of all terrestrial biomes because of it's sensitivity to multiple biodiversity threats(Klausmeyer and Shaw, 2009).
	One of the most noticeable coastal cities in the Mediterranean Sea region is Alexandria in Egypt and here it is chosen as the case study area. Alexandria is an important area for industry, agriculture, fisheries and tourism. Because of the lack of environmental monitoring and legal framework, Alexandria is subordinated to serious changes. For all of our group members this area is a new challenge and a great opportunity to study the impact of climate change on the high value coastal areas.		One of the most noticeable coastal cities in the Mediterranean Sea region is Alexandria in Egypt and here it is chosen as the case study area. Alexandria is an important area for industry, agriculture, fisheries and tourism. Because of the lack of environmental monitoring and legal framework, Alexandria is subordinated to serious changes. For all of our group members this area is a new challenge and a great opportunity to study the impact of climate change on the high value coastal areas.


	=== Authors' perspectives ===		=== Authors' perspectives ===

Ilze Draudina: /* Proposals for Climate Change Mitigation */

2013-01-14T21:24:37Z

Proposals for Climate Change Mitigation

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	'''1. Renewable energy – wind power'''		'''1. Renewable energy – wind power'''

	Emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and greenhouse gases (GHG) heavily influence climate changes. It is possible to lessen the impact of these gases by reducing fossil fuel consumption. In early 1980s a renewable energy strategy was defined as an integral part of the national energy planning in Egypt [http://www.nrea.gov.eg/english1.html~~/ Strategy…)~~]. Many processes of climate change adaptation or mitigation are linked to bigger consumption of electric energy, for example electromobiles. Etiologically it is important to find possibilities to produce electric energy using renewable resources. Currently the strategic target is to satisfy 20% of the electric energy demand from renewable energy resources by the year 2020, including about 12% from wind power and 8% from other renewable energy resources, for example hydro power, solar energy, etc (Strategy…). This aim may be referred also to Alexandria. The wind power is considered to be the major resource of renewable energy in the national energy planning in Egypt. There are more advantages than disadvantages in use of wind energy [http://www.technologystudent.com/energy1/wind8.htm~~/ (Advantages…)~~]:		Emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and greenhouse gases (GHG) heavily influence climate changes. It is possible to lessen the impact of these gases by reducing fossil fuel consumption. In early 1980s a renewable energy strategy was defined as an integral part of the national energy planning in Egypt (Strategy…)[http://www.nrea.gov.eg/english1.html]. Many processes of climate change adaptation or mitigation are linked to bigger consumption of electric energy, for example electromobiles. Etiologically it is important to find possibilities to produce electric energy using renewable resources. Currently the strategic target is to satisfy 20% of the electric energy demand from renewable energy resources by the year 2020, including about 12% from wind power and 8% from other renewable energy resources, for example hydro power, solar energy, etc (Strategy…). This aim may be referred also to Alexandria. The wind power is considered to be the major resource of renewable energy in the national energy planning in Egypt. There are more advantages than disadvantages in use of wind energy (Advantages…)[http://www.technologystudent.com/energy1/wind8.htm]:

	'''Advantages of wind power :'''		'''Advantages of wind power :'''
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	Green systems need to become an integral part of urban planning, spatial planning and land use planning in general. Surfaces covered with vegetation can serve as carbon sinks and remove CO2 from the atmosphere thus increasing air quality as well as urban living conditions. Open green areas in Alexandria are scarce, however their quantity could increase through designating more surfaces to be turned into parks instead of construction sites and through building green roofs where possible using plants that can endure the local climate. If planned well, these surfaces could be integrated into a valuable green system - green belt, greenway or green wedge.		Green systems need to become an integral part of urban planning, spatial planning and land use planning in general. Surfaces covered with vegetation can serve as carbon sinks and remove CO2 from the atmosphere thus increasing air quality as well as urban living conditions. Open green areas in Alexandria are scarce, however their quantity could increase through designating more surfaces to be turned into parks instead of construction sites and through building green roofs where possible using plants that can endure the local climate. If planned well, these surfaces could be integrated into a valuable green system - green belt, greenway or green wedge.


	=== Your scenario ===		=== Your scenario ===

Ilze Draudina: /* Proposals for Climate Change Adaption */

2013-01-14T21:23:00Z

Proposals for Climate Change Adaption

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	'''A. Coastal erosion'''		'''A. Coastal erosion'''

	In the geological and topographical context Alexandria is built on a coastal plain. On this account the coastal area of Alexandria is subjected to erosion. The coastline of Alexandria can be divided into three categories [http://arabworld.worldbank.org/content/dam/awi/pdf/Alexandria_Phase1_ExecSum.pdf~~/ (Executive summary…)~~]:		In the geological and topographical context Alexandria is built on a coastal plain. On this account the coastal area of Alexandria is subjected to erosion. The coastline of Alexandria can be divided into three categories (Executive summary…)[http://arabworld.worldbank.org/content/dam/awi/pdf/Alexandria_Phase1_ExecSum.pdf]:
	1) Seriously eroding areas – flat and low-lying coastal areas, for example western back-shore zone of Abu Quir Bay and El Tineh plain,and also delta coastal plain areas affected by subsidence. Also because of ongoing natural coastal processes the beaches of Alexandria, from Mandara to El Silcila are experiencing long term erosion of approximately 20 cm a year.		1) Seriously eroding areas – flat and low-lying coastal areas, for example western back-shore zone of Abu Quir Bay and El Tineh plain,and also delta coastal plain areas affected by subsidence. Also because of ongoing natural coastal processes the beaches of Alexandria, from Mandara to El Silcila are experiencing long term erosion of approximately 20 cm a year.
	2) Artificially protected coastal areas. These areas are at risk of structural defects caused by tsunami or storms, for example, Abu Quir seawall along the Nile Delta coast.		2) Artificially protected coastal areas. These areas are at risk of structural defects caused by tsunami or storms, for example, Abu Quir seawall along the Nile Delta coast.
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	'''1. Beach Nourishment'''		'''1. Beach Nourishment'''
	Beach nourishment is an adaption technology usually used to protect coastal area from erosion, but it also helps to reduce flooding risk. The aim of this technology is to ensure that the nourishment material is compatible with the existing natural beach material (Reeve et al., 2004). The acquisition of the beach nourishment comes from wave energy dissipation – waves loose energy when they swash the beach. Different beach profiles and gradients interact with waves to differing extent [http://tech-action.org/Guidebooks/TNA_Guidebook_AdaptationCoastalErosionFlooding.pdf~~/ (Technologies...)~~].		Beach nourishment is an adaption technology usually used to protect coastal area from erosion, but it also helps to reduce flooding risk. The aim of this technology is to ensure that the nourishment material is compatible with the existing natural beach material (Reeve et al., 2004). The acquisition of the beach nourishment comes from wave energy dissipation – waves loose energy when they swash the beach. Different beach profiles and gradients interact with waves to differing extent (Technologies...) [http://tech-action.org/Guidebooks/TNA_Guidebook_AdaptationCoastalErosionFlooding.pdf].
	There are different methods how nourishment can be deposited, for example by dredge, trucks or conveyor belts. The most popular method is to supply nourishment material by offshore dredging because it allows to move large quantities of nourishment material from an area where it's removal and transport is cautious to the shoreline (Technologies...).		There are different methods how nourishment can be deposited, for example by dredge, trucks or conveyor belts. The most popular method is to supply nourishment material by offshore dredging because it allows to move large quantities of nourishment material from an area where it's removal and transport is cautious to the shoreline (Technologies...).

Ilze Draudina: /* Local Climate */

2013-01-14T21:19:27Z

Local Climate

← Older revision		Revision as of 21:19, 14 January 2013
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	=== Local Climate ===		=== Local Climate ===
	Because of the prevailing north wind blowing across the Mediterranean Sea, the climate in Alexandria is different from the climate further inland. Alexandria is a semi – desert area. Hot dry summers and moderate winters are characteristic for the climate of Alexandria. The summers are relatively temperate, the hottest months are July and August when the average temperature reaches 30 °C (Climate indicators...)[http://www.climate-zone.com/climate/egypt/celsius/alexandria.htm/]. Winters are cool and often marked by a series of storms that can bring torrential rain and even hail. The coldest months are January and February, when the average temperature dips till 13 °C and the average minimum temperature is 8°C (Climate indicators...). The average annual temperature is 21, 3°C (Climate and Temperature Alexandria...)[http://www.alexandria.climatemps.com].		Because of the prevailing north wind blowing across the Mediterranean Sea, the climate in Alexandria is different from the climate further inland. Alexandria is a semi – desert area. Hot dry summers and moderate winters are characteristic for the climate of Alexandria. The summers are relatively temperate, the hottest months are July and August when the average temperature reaches 30 °C (Climate indicators...)[http://www.climate-zone.com/climate/egypt/celsius/alexandria.htm]. Winters are cool and often marked by a series of storms that can bring torrential rain and even hail. The coldest months are January and February, when the average temperature dips till 13 °C and the average minimum temperature is 8°C (Climate indicators...). The average annual temperature is 21, 3°C (Climate and Temperature Alexandria...)[http://www.alexandria.climatemps.com].
	Moving southward from the Delta to the Sudanese border the average annual temperature increases and the temperature variation becomes similar to those of the open deserts (IPCC, 2007)[http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report.htm].		Moving southward from the Delta to the Sudanese border the average annual temperature increases and the temperature variation becomes similar to those of the open deserts (IPCC, 2007)[http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report.htm].

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	Sirocco (khamsin for Egyptian),a hot spring wind that blows across the country, is an important climatic phenomenon in Egypt. The wind forms a small but forceful low pressure area and rages across the northern coast of Africa. The speed of wind may reach140 kilometers per hour. Sirocco wind is mixed with sand and dust from the deserts and it can increase the air temperature suddenly about 20°C within two hours. It appears usually in April and at times in March and May (IPCC, 2007).		Sirocco (khamsin for Egyptian),a hot spring wind that blows across the country, is an important climatic phenomenon in Egypt. The wind forms a small but forceful low pressure area and rages across the northern coast of Africa. The speed of wind may reach140 kilometers per hour. Sirocco wind is mixed with sand and dust from the deserts and it can increase the air temperature suddenly about 20°C within two hours. It appears usually in April and at times in March and May (IPCC, 2007).
	In the National Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries (NIOF) in Egypt a research has been conducted on climatic change and sea level variation of Alexandria in the time period from 1974 – 2006. The main conclusions are:[http://conference2011.wcrp-climate.org/abstracts/C38/Said_C38_TH16A.pdf~~/ (Said, M., Moursy, Z., and Radwan A.,2006)~~]		In the National Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries (NIOF) in Egypt a research has been conducted on climatic change and sea level variation of Alexandria in the time period from 1974 – 2006. The main conclusions are: (Said, M., Moursy, Z., and Radwan A.,2006)[http://conference2011.wcrp-climate.org/abstracts/C38/Said_C38_TH16A.pdf]
	the mean annual air temperature over Alexandria region increased by about 2.24°C and		the mean annual air temperature over Alexandria region increased by about 2.24°C and
	the annual mean sea level increased by 9.95 cm over the study period giving a sea level rise of 3 mm per year.		the annual mean sea level increased by 9.95 cm over the study period giving a sea level rise of 3 mm per year.

	In 2010 heavy rains and strong winds affected several parts of the Middle East and caused damage to dozens of buildings in Egypt. High winds and heavy rains caused a partial collapse of some 28 buildings in Alexandria and there were seven victims ([http://poleshift.ning.com/profiles/blogs/middle-east-flooded-and~~/ (Middle East flooded...)~~].		In 2010 heavy rains and strong winds affected several parts of the Middle East and caused damage to dozens of buildings in Egypt. High winds and heavy rains caused a partial collapse of some 28 buildings in Alexandria and there were seven victims(Middle East flooded...) [http://poleshift.ning.com/profiles/blogs/middle-east-flooded-and].

	Based on the IPCC fourth assessment report (IPCC, 2007), temperature increase per decade in Alexandria (since 1979 to 2005) is in the range of 0.05 to 0.15 °C and the temperature will continue to rise. The report is not predicting the change of the precipitation in the same period due to insufficient data to produce reliable trends.		Based on the IPCC fourth assessment report (IPCC, 2007), temperature increase per decade in Alexandria (since 1979 to 2005) is in the range of 0.05 to 0.15 °C and the temperature will continue to rise. The report is not predicting the change of the precipitation in the same period due to insufficient data to produce reliable trends.

Ilze Draudina: /* Local Climate */

2013-01-14T21:16:48Z

Local Climate

← Older revision		Revision as of 21:16, 14 January 2013
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	=== Local Climate ===		=== Local Climate ===
	Because of the prevailing north wind blowing across the Mediterranean Sea, the climate in Alexandria is different from the climate further inland. Alexandria is a semi – desert area. Hot dry summers and moderate winters are characteristic for the climate of Alexandria. The summers are relatively temperate, the hottest months are July and August when the average temperature reaches 30 °C [http://www.climate-zone.com/climate/egypt/celsius/alexandria.htm/~~(Climate indicators...)~~] . Winters are cool and often marked by a series of storms that can bring torrential rain and even hail. The coldest months are January and February, when the average temperature dips till 13 °C and the average minimum temperature is 8°C (Climate indicators...). The average annual temperature is 21, 3°C [http://www.alexandria.climatemps.com~~/ (Climate and Temperature Alexandria...)~~].		Because of the prevailing north wind blowing across the Mediterranean Sea, the climate in Alexandria is different from the climate further inland. Alexandria is a semi – desert area. Hot dry summers and moderate winters are characteristic for the climate of Alexandria. The summers are relatively temperate, the hottest months are July and August when the average temperature reaches 30 °C (Climate indicators...)[http://www.climate-zone.com/climate/egypt/celsius/alexandria.htm/]. Winters are cool and often marked by a series of storms that can bring torrential rain and even hail. The coldest months are January and February, when the average temperature dips till 13 °C and the average minimum temperature is 8°C (Climate indicators...). The average annual temperature is 21, 3°C (Climate and Temperature Alexandria...)[http://www.alexandria.climatemps.com].
	Moving southward from the Delta to the Sudanese border the average annual temperature increases and the temperature variation becomes similar to those of the open deserts [http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report.htm~~/ (IPCC, 2007)~~].		Moving southward from the Delta to the Sudanese border the average annual temperature increases and the temperature variation becomes similar to those of the open deserts (IPCC, 2007)[http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report.htm].

Ilze Draudina: /* Local Climate */

2013-01-14T21:15:19Z

Local Climate

← Older revision		Revision as of 21:15, 14 January 2013
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	=== Local Climate ===		=== Local Climate ===
	Because of the prevailing north wind blowing across the Mediterranean Sea, the climate in Alexandria is different from the climate further inland. Alexandria is a semi – desert area. Hot dry summers and moderate winters are characteristic for the climate of Alexandria. The summers are relatively temperate, the hottest months are July and August when the average temperature reaches 30 °C [http://www.climate-zone.com/climate/egypt/celsius/alexandria.htm]/ (Climate indicators...). Winters are cool and often marked by a series of storms that can bring torrential rain and even hail. The coldest months are January and February, when the average temperature dips till 13 °C and the average minimum temperature is 8°C (Climate indicators...). The average annual temperature is 21, 3°C [http://www.alexandria.climatemps.com/ (Climate and Temperature Alexandria...)].		Because of the prevailing north wind blowing across the Mediterranean Sea, the climate in Alexandria is different from the climate further inland. Alexandria is a semi – desert area. Hot dry summers and moderate winters are characteristic for the climate of Alexandria. The summers are relatively temperate, the hottest months are July and August when the average temperature reaches 30 °C [http://www.climate-zone.com/climate/egypt/celsius/alexandria.htm/(Climate indicators...)] . Winters are cool and often marked by a series of storms that can bring torrential rain and even hail. The coldest months are January and February, when the average temperature dips till 13 °C and the average minimum temperature is 8°C (Climate indicators...). The average annual temperature is 21, 3°C [http://www.alexandria.climatemps.com/ (Climate and Temperature Alexandria...)].
	Moving southward from the Delta to the Sudanese border the average annual temperature increases and the temperature variation becomes similar to those of the open deserts [http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report.htm/ (IPCC, 2007)].		Moving southward from the Delta to the Sudanese border the average annual temperature increases and the temperature variation becomes similar to those of the open deserts [http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report.htm/ (IPCC, 2007)].

Ilze Draudina: /* Local Climate */

2013-01-14T21:14:49Z

Local Climate

← Older revision		Revision as of 21:14, 14 January 2013
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	=== Local Climate ===		=== Local Climate ===
	Because of the prevailing north wind blowing across the Mediterranean Sea, the climate in Alexandria is different from the climate further inland. Alexandria is a semi – desert area. Hot dry summers and moderate winters are characteristic for the climate of Alexandria. The summers are relatively temperate, the hottest months are July and August when the average temperature reaches 30 °C ~~(Climate indicators...~~[http://www.climate-zone.com/climate/egypt/celsius/alexandria.htm]. Winters are cool and often marked by a series of storms that can bring torrential rain and even hail. The coldest months are January and February, when the average temperature dips till 13 °C and the average minimum temperature is 8°C (Climate indicators...). The average annual temperature is 21, 3°C [http://www.alexandria.climatemps.com/ (Climate and Temperature Alexandria...)].		Because of the prevailing north wind blowing across the Mediterranean Sea, the climate in Alexandria is different from the climate further inland. Alexandria is a semi – desert area. Hot dry summers and moderate winters are characteristic for the climate of Alexandria. The summers are relatively temperate, the hottest months are July and August when the average temperature reaches 30 °C [http://www.climate-zone.com/climate/egypt/celsius/alexandria.htm]/ (Climate indicators...). Winters are cool and often marked by a series of storms that can bring torrential rain and even hail. The coldest months are January and February, when the average temperature dips till 13 °C and the average minimum temperature is 8°C (Climate indicators...). The average annual temperature is 21, 3°C [http://www.alexandria.climatemps.com/ (Climate and Temperature Alexandria...)].
	Moving southward from the Delta to the Sudanese border the average annual temperature increases and the temperature variation becomes similar to those of the open deserts [http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report.htm/ (IPCC, 2007)].		Moving southward from the Delta to the Sudanese border the average annual temperature increases and the temperature variation becomes similar to those of the open deserts [http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report.htm/ (IPCC, 2007)].

Ilze Draudina: /* Local Climate */

2013-01-14T21:13:59Z

Local Climate

← Older revision		Revision as of 21:13, 14 January 2013
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	=== Local Climate ===		=== Local Climate ===
	Because of the prevailing north wind blowing across the Mediterranean Sea, the climate in Alexandria is different from the climate further inland. Alexandria is a semi – desert area. Hot dry summers and moderate winters are characteristic for the climate of Alexandria. The summers are relatively temperate, the hottest months are July and August when the average temperature reaches 30 °C [http://www.climate-zone.com/climate/egypt/celsius/alexandria.htm~~/ Climate indicators...)~~]. Winters are cool and often marked by a series of storms that can bring torrential rain and even hail. The coldest months are January and February, when the average temperature dips till 13 °C and the average minimum temperature is 8°C (Climate indicators...). The average annual temperature is 21, 3°C [http://www.alexandria.climatemps.com/ (Climate and Temperature Alexandria...)].		Because of the prevailing north wind blowing across the Mediterranean Sea, the climate in Alexandria is different from the climate further inland. Alexandria is a semi – desert area. Hot dry summers and moderate winters are characteristic for the climate of Alexandria. The summers are relatively temperate, the hottest months are July and August when the average temperature reaches 30 °C (Climate indicators...[http://www.climate-zone.com/climate/egypt/celsius/alexandria.htm]. Winters are cool and often marked by a series of storms that can bring torrential rain and even hail. The coldest months are January and February, when the average temperature dips till 13 °C and the average minimum temperature is 8°C (Climate indicators...). The average annual temperature is 21, 3°C [http://www.alexandria.climatemps.com/ (Climate and Temperature Alexandria...)].
	Moving southward from the Delta to the Sudanese border the average annual temperature increases and the temperature variation becomes similar to those of the open deserts [http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report.htm/ (IPCC, 2007)].		Moving southward from the Delta to the Sudanese border the average annual temperature increases and the temperature variation becomes similar to those of the open deserts [http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report.htm/ (IPCC, 2007)].